On March 21, 2025, Martin Wolf, Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, visited Guanghua School of Management. Under the theme “What We Know and Do Not Know about the Future of the World Economy”, Mr. Wolf engaged in a dialogue with Prof. Liu Qiao, Dean of Guanghua School of Management, alongside over 200 faculty and students, to discuss future trends and critical challenges facing the global economy.

Martin Wolf, one of the world’s most distinguished financial journalists and a leading authority in international economic analysis, served as a Senior Economist at the World Bank before joining the Financial Times in 1987. Renowned for his academic rigor and practical insights, his analysis has gained widespread international influence and reputation. During the dialogue, Mr. Wolf proposed a macro framework for analyzing global economic trends, addressing pivotal issues such as demographic shifts, globalization and deglobalization, and technological transformation.

Mr. Martin Wolf

Certainties in an Uncertain Economy

In his opening remarks, Mr. Wolf acknowledged the unprecedented uncertainty of the global economy over recent decades. Despite an average annual growth rate of 3% after World War II, the world has weathered shocks ranging from the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, oil crises, the Soviet Union’s collapse, the global financial crisis in 2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic. While predicting global economic trajectories remains difficult, he identified five factors with certainty shaping the future: First, demographic shifts and labor market transformations, particularly Africa and South Asia’s increasing populations, which will reshape global markets. Second, global climate change, which will be irreversible unless all countries take radical joint efforts to intervene. Third, technology will continue to drive very profound changes in the way our economy works, such as AI, biological sciences and genetic engineering. Fourth, growth output in the world will continue to shift away from the old high-income countries to developing and emerging countries, predominantly in Asia. Fifth, growth itself will continue, albeit amid intertwined financial, political, and social risks.

Mr. Wolf further highlighted three systemic fragilities: Financial fragility, exemplified by soaring debt-to-GDP ratios in advanced economies, where sluggish growth raises default risks. Political fragility, as emerging evidence of the loss of legitimacy of western democracies and the rise of right-wing populism, which has been explored in his latest book The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. Environmental fragility, with ecosystems nearing irreversible collapse. Due to the mounting uncertainties in the world economy in the future, we urgently need an economic system with adequate resilience and inclusiveness.

Bridging the Past and the Future

During the dialogue, Dean Liu Qiao invited Mr. Wolf to reflect on his economic observations through several decades. Mr. Wolf recalled the 1990s as a golden age, when globalization fostered “a world dominated by economic logic”, driving peace, prosperity, and human welfare universally. His generation witnessed historic progress: rising life expectancy in developing regions, declining global poverty, and improvements in women’s status. Despite the great challenges and waning confidence nowadays, Mr. Wolf stressed that emerging technologies remain transformative forces.  

As for the future growth driving force, Mr. Wolf emphasized the need for technological breakthroughs to lift the service sector. As manufacturing’s GDP share shrinks globally, aging populations demand AI-driven innovations in education, healthcare, and other services to boost productivity. While the dynamics differ in developing regions like Africa, for economies such as China that are poised to transition into deeply service-oriented systems, the efficiency revolution enabled by advanced technology in the service sector will determine the ceiling for future growth.  

Dean LIU Qiao (left), Mr. Martin (right)

Living with Shifts and Shocks

Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency in January 2025 heightened uncertainty in global governance. Martin Wolf was quite astonished by Trump’s series of new policies and actions, and he acknowledged that the U.S. politics have been forever changed. Yet he maintained that “globalization is unstoppable”. It is hard to stop the flow of capital and people globally, and technology and ideas can inherently cross borders by nature. That’s why globalization driven by flows of these factors will not stop. While Trump’s policies reshape U.S. political economy, world situations will also depend on other “superpowers”, including China and the EU.  

"What we need is not more finance, but better finance," Dean Liu Qiao once quoted Mr. Wolf's comment during a lecture, he invited Mr. Wolf to comment on the international financial systems after the 2008 financial crisis. Mr. Wolf acknowledged improvements, such as higher bank capital adequacy and risk isolation in private credit markets, which reduce systemic collapse risks. However, he stressed that finance must address two dimensions of issues, one being ensuring that risks are assumed from right sources, namely by supporting innovation and welfare advancements, and the other being structural changes to avoid systemic collapse.

At the end of the dialogue, Mr. Wolf suggested that young students get the broadest education they possibly can to fully understand the world economy. He recalled his own life experiences and recommended not limiting themselves to economics but also pursuing studies in politics, philosophy, history, literature, psychology, etc. An economic analyst should have broad experiences, and “get used to analyzing stuff rigorously and professionally.” The most important thing for intellectual pursuit is limitless curiosity, whatever the future career may be, just like a 2-year-old baby. The event concluded with warm applause.  

Interaction with Audience

During the Q&A session, students raised questions concerning a variety of topics. Regarding the rise of western right-wing movements, Mr. Wolf attributed this to the backlash against globalization, with a mix of anti-immigrant sentiment and nostalgia for lost manufacturing jobs. On comparisons between China’s current economy and Japan’s challenges during the “lost three decades”, he noted China’s current unique advantages: ample room for growth, and no giant economic followers. However, problems such as inadequate investments to absorb high savings and real estate bubbles deserve serious attention and a change in the Chinese growth model.

Group Photo

Throughout the event, Mr. Wolf’s three decades of expertise delivered sharp insights and wit for Guanghua faculty and students. The “Guanghua Thought Leader Series” continues to bridge cutting-edge thoughts and global perspectives, fostering wisdom for navigating the future of the world economy.

The Guanghua Thought Leaders Series, initiated by PKU Guanghua School of Management, actively serves as a vibrant platform for students to engage with distinguished figures from across the globe, including pioneering academics, industry executives, and government leaders. Previous speakers have featured internationally renowned individuals such as Nobel laureate Dr. Robert Wilson, Dr. James Heckman, former Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank and Chief Economic Adviser to the Indian Government Kaushik Basu, former President of the European Commission and Prime Minister of Italy Romano Prodi, Starbucks founder Howard Schultz, Chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman of Schneider Electric Jean-Pascal Tricoire. This series not only fosters cross-cultural exchange and learning but also embodies the school's commitment to cultivating outstanding talents with global perspectives and leadership qualities.